The deficit will shrink to an estimated $641 billion in fiscal year 2013 (or 4.0 percent of GDP);however, such fiscal tightening will lead to economic conditions in 2013 that will probably be considered a recession, with real GDP declining by 0.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2013, while the unemployment rate rises to about 9 percent in the second half of calendar year 2013.
