Friday, October 5, 2012

Oil's Slow Death

Over the long run, something is happening to the role of imported oil in the American economy: it's shrinking. This comes across clearly in the outlook released by the Energy Information Administration.

The remarkable expansion of U.S. production from shale gas and unconventional oil sources such as the Bakken formation in North Dakota are relatively well known. However, there is less awareness that American consumption is barely growing.

And the EIA has estimated of America's liquid fuel production in 2035 at 20m barrels a day, which would be below the 2005 peak. Coupled with rising domestic production, America will rely on net imports for just 36% of its liquid fuel needs in 2035, compared to 60% in 2005.

This has two principal economic implications: First, there will be lower CO2 emissions. And second, our future economy will be less sensitive to changes in the price of oil.