Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Death - Pro's and Con's

In the past, longer life spans paid clear demographic dividends: More children survived until productive, young adulthood. And with larger proportions of the population at working age,  per-capita output rose accordingly.

But now things have changed. In the first half of the 20th century, the decline in death rates was more salient for infants and children; in the second half, it was more salient for those over age 70, which has large economic implications.

If it means people work later in life, that boosts economic output. If it means a growing fraction of the workforce lives longer and longer in retirement, it doesn’t.

In other words, the typical age of retirement isn’t rising nearly as fast as life expectancy. One recent study states that public policy should encourage more of those over 65 to work and to encourage saving more for retirement.

Basically, people cannot expect to finance 20-25-year retirements with 35-year careers. Not in Greece, not in the U.S. and not anywhere else.